Europe between past and future

Dec 4, 2013

LOGS OF 04-12-2013/ Extreme Windstorm Xaver Poised to Batter Denmark, The Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Lithuania and Sweden

LOGS OF 04-12-2013 :

Times in CET !

- DE ZWARTE BISON, 1646kcs, 17.13hrs, SINPO 34243 (Dutch music)

- RADIO ARMADA, 1638kcs, 17.17hrs, SINPO 3434,3-4  ( Dutch music )

- RADIO ACTIVITY, 3905kcs, 17.40hrs, SINPO 34233  ( Dutch music )

- UNID ON 1611kcs, 20.30hrs, SINPO 33333 ( Dutch music )

- UNID ON 1512kcs, 20.36hrs, SINPO 33333 ( Pop oldy ) 

- LASER HOT HITS, 4026kcs, 22.12hrs, SINPO 34233 ( Pop music )



Extreme Windstorm Xaver Poised to Batter Denmark, The Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Lithuania and Sweden

Published: 01:44 AM GMT am 04. Dezember 2013
A developing extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic, dubbed "Xaver" by the Free University of Berlin, is predicted to "bomb" into a potent storm with winds near hurricane force that will bring damaging winds and storm tides to the coasts of Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark on Thursday. By Thursday night, Xaver's center will cross southern Sweden, and damaging winds from the storm will sweep the coasts of Poland, Lithuania, and southern Sweden. The center of the low will pass over southern Norway, bringing strong northwest winds that will funnel down the North Sea. The European model predicts that at 18 UTC on Thursday, winds on the west coast of Denmark will be sustained near 58 mph (93 kph). Xaver will be accompanied by intense thunderstorms capable of mixing the stronger winds occurring aloft down to the surface, and wind damage may rival that of October's Extratropical Storm "Christian" (AKA the St. Jude storm), which bottomed out at 968 mb. Christian killed 18, and did $1.4 billion in damage. There is a smaller chance that the wind damage from Xaver will approach that of Windstorm Anatol, which hit Denmark, Southwest Sweden, and Northern Germany on December 3, 1999. Anatol had sustained winds of up to 91 mph (146 kph), killed 20 people, and injured over 800. Damage was $2.6 billion (1999 dollars) in Denmark, making it the costliest disaster in Danish history.

Figure 1. The European (ECMWF) model run performed at 12Z (7 am EST) on Tuesday, December 2, 2013, valid at 18Z (1 pm EST) Thursday, December 5, 2013, calls for winds in excess of 60 knots (69 mph) to affect the western coast of Denmark. The more recent 0Z Wednesday European model run has winds that are not quite as strong, about 5 mph less.

The predicted surface winds of Xaver will be similar to the ones the Netherlands experienced during the great February 1, 1953 North Sea storm that breached dikes in the Netherlands and England and killed over 2100 people. That storm bottomed out with a central pressure of 964 mb. Wednesday's 0Z European model run bottoms Xaver out at 964 mb, and the 12Z GFS is more intense, at 956 mb. However, the 1953 storm was much slower, and brought sustained winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph) to the North Sea for more than 24 hours, allowing a huge storm surge in excess of 3 meters (10 feet) to pile up. In contrast, "Xaver" is expected to bring 50-knot winds to the North Sea for only about 9 hours, and the storm surge will not be as high as occurred in 1953. The maximum storm surge of Xaver will be in Germany and Denmark, farther to the east than occurred in the 1953 storm. The storm tide will be unusually high, since we are only two days past the new moon. Fortunately, the German coast is well protected by dikes, which are about 8 meters high, some even higher, and these dikes should be able to withstand Xaver's storm surge. The German weather service storm surge forecast made Wednesday morning called for a storm tide of 3 meters above average high tide in Cuxhaven, and 2.75 meters in Bremerhaven, during the high tide cycle early Friday morning.


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